DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/05 11:05

DTN Midday Grain Comments     12/05 11:05

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans lead mixed trade at midday. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 30. The dollar index is 20 
lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are lightly firmer with 
crude $0.20 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer 
with gold up 2.70.


   Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with trade back to the middle 
of the recent range after the pull back yesterday with little other fresh news 
so far this week. Ethanol margins remain steady with the blenders gaining the 
benefit of the crude and unleaded move this week while ethanol futures have 
been mostly sideways. Basis has held up well with some strength showing up at 
processors again. South America should see areas of improvement as planting 
progresses, with a drier week in Argentina expected through the weekend. Weekly 
export sales were rangebound at 546,115 metric tons. On the March contract 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.74, with resistance the 20-day at 
$3.81 at which we failed again. 


   Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade finding follow-through 
buying after the strong close yesterday as we ease off the extremely oversold 
conditions along with 245,000 metric tons of soybeans sold on the daily wire 
between old and new crop. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is flat to 10 
points higher with meal moving back above $300 a ton. The real remains cheap 
vs. the dollar although with early week gains fading again. Bean basis has 
moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up 
on the break. Weekly export sales were soft for the Holiday week at 683,783 
metric tons of soybeans, 181,050 of meal, and 10,781 of oil. January chart 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.61 which we are finally pulling away 
from, with resistance well above the market at $9.00 where the 20-day moving 
average, along with exceptionally oversold conditions starting to ease.


   Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with Minneapolis trade 
leading at midday with trade further consolidating in the higher range. The 
Chicago/Kansas City March spread is back to 85 cents. Chicago also holding a 6 
cent premium to Minneapolis which has narrowed sharply this week. The dollar 
remains rangebound but is starting to shift lower again. Export business has 
been quiet so far this week. The forecast dries the Plains back out short term, 
with little change to world conditions north and south this week. Weekly export 
sales were softer again at 228,086 metric tons. The March Kansas City chart 
support is the 20-day at $4.35, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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